Description
Over the past 60 years, Aruba and Sint Maarten developed along similar paths into typical “Small Island Tourism Economies” (SITEs). As a matter of fact, they belong to the group of most intensely tourism-dedicated island economies in the world. Both islands have presently arrived at the stagnation phase of Richard Butler’s Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC). This implies they have reached the limits of their carrying capacity, which is the level of tourism activity that an area can accommodate without adverse effect on the environment, the resident community or the quality of the tourism product itself. In short, the model is no longer sustainable.

This study looks at the internal governance and socio-economic dynamics of SITEs. What makes SITEs tick? What are the internal governance and socio-economic processes that help understand how SITEs develop into destinations with a high tourism intensity, and why they react the way they do, when inevitably the limits of their carrying capacity are reached? Furthermore, as the limitations of the SITE model have been recognized since the 1990s, why have Aruba and Sint Maarten persisted in developing along the same lines?

Butler’s TALC model gives a range of possibilities after the stagnation phase of a tourism destination: from decline on the negative side, to rejuvenation – reinventing the destination and its tourism product – on the positive side. In reality however, Aruba and Sint Maarten have tried to stretch the stagnation phase, inching closer and closer to the risk of decline, the point where the negative impact of the tourism model deteriorates the quality of life, and eventually the visitors’ experience itself, potentially sending the islands into an irreversible tailspin.

Presently, the Covid-19 pandemic and its consequences have thrown the debate about the future of Small Island Tourism Economies wide open. Tourism was thus far considered an export industry with a low vulnerability to external shocks. However, mobility of the visitor, a factor that was once taken for granted, has turned out to be its Achilles’ heel. With the tourism model under existential threat, fundamental choices will have to be made by each tourism destination and each island. A choice between simply restoring the old formula or grasping the opportunity to remodel and revamp the tourism product on a smaller scale with a higher quality and sustainability.